Rabu, 10 April 2019

2019 Masters odds: Surprising picks from model that called Patrick Reed's victory - CBS Sports

Augusta National Golf Club is teeming with patrons as the 2019 Masters approaches. The Champions Dinner was held on Tuesday night, while the Masters Par-3 Contest is on Wednesday. A total of 81 professional golfers and six top amateurs will vie for the 83rd Masters championship and a coveted green jacket. Among those battling on the pristine fairways at Augusta will be Tiger Woods, who got back into the win column with his 80th career PGA victory at the Tour Championship last year. The four-time Masters champion is at 14-1 in the latest 2019 Masters odds. Only Rory McIlroy (7-1), Dustin Johnson (10-1) and Justin Rose (12-1) have shorter odds heading into the opening round of the Masters 2019 on Thursday. 2019 Masters tee times start with Corey Conners (250-1), last week's Texas Open winner and the final player in the field, playing alongside Andrew Landry (1000-1) and Adam Long (500-1) at 8:30 a.m. ET. Prior to making any last-minute 2019 Masters picks, you need to see the projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed four of the last eight majors entering the weekend, including Patrick Reed's groundbreaking win last year at the Masters. It also called Woods' deep run in the PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. 

The model has been spot-on early in the 2018-19 season. It was high on eventual winner McIlroy at the 2019 Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Brooks Koepka's (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau's (9-1) seven-shot victory at the 2019 Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up. 

Now that the field for the Masters 2019 is set, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Jordan Spieth, the 2015 Masters champion and one of the Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and doesn't even crack the top 25.

The three-time major champion has had a tough run by his standards lately, with three missed cuts and no top-20 finishes during the 2018-19 PGA schedule so far. Spieth has struggled with a two-way miss off his driver, ranking 203rd in strokes gained off the tee at -0.695 and 143rd in total strokes gained at -0.349. He failed to make the weekend at the Mayakoba Golf Classic, Sony Open in Hawaii, and Players Championship already this season. Plus, he turned in a 68 in the first two rounds of last week's Texas Open, but stumbled on Saturday and Sunday with a 73 and 72 to finish a disappointing 30th.

Those struggles have dropped his Official World Golf Ranking to No. 33 and he's just 170th in FedEx Cup points. Even with his past success at Augusta National Golf Club, Spieth is a golfer to fade given his recent track record, according to the model. He's not worth the 16-1 premium you'll need to pay for him at the Masters 2019.

Another surprise: Bryson DeChambeau, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The 25-year-old is golf's version of a mad scientist. In fact, he comes armed to the Masters 2019 with single-length clubs designed to create a true one-plane swing. He obsesses over the numbers more than just about any other golfer in the history of the game and it's pretty clear that his approach is working. DeChambeau has several worldwide wins in the last year, including a victory at the Memorial, two FedEx Cup Playoff wins, and a championship earlier this year at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. As a result, he has moved all the way up to No. 6 in the world.

DeChambeau is 19th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained per round at 1.336 this season. He's driving the golf ball extremely well too, ranking eighth in strokes gained off the tee at 0.707. That means a major advantage at Augusta National with its tight, tree-lined fairways and four potentially reachable par-5 holes. Look for DeChambeau to shoot up the 2019 Masters leaderboard starting on Thursday.

Also, the model says three other golfers with 2019 Masters odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 Masters, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2019 Masters odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2019 Masters leaderboard from the model that nailed Patrick Reed's victory last year.

2019 Masters odds

Rory McIlroy 7-1
Dustin Johnson 10-1
Justin Rose 12-1
Tiger Woods 14-1
Jon Rahm 16-1
Justin Thomas 16-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Rickie Fowler 16-1
Tommy Fleetwood 20-1
Francesco Molinari 20-1
Brooks Koepka 25-1
Jason Day 25-1
Bubba Watson 25-1
Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
Paul Casey 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Tony Finau 35-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Matt Kuchar 40-1
Xander Schauffele 40-1
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1
Marc Leishman 50-1
Patrick Reed 60-1
Henrik Stenson 60-1
Sergio Garcia 60-1
Patrick Cantlay 60-1
Kevin Kisner 60-1
Gary Woodland 60-1
Ian Poulter 80-1
Brandt Snedeker 80-1
Charley Hoffman 80-1
Cameron Smith 80-1
Webb Simpson 100-1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100-1
Keegan Bradley 100-1
Si Woo Kim 100-1
Charles Howell III 100-1

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https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2019-masters-odds-surprising-picks-from-model-that-called-patrick-reeds-victory/

2019-04-10 17:03:00Z
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